The IMF released the latest World Economic Outlook report on Tuesday before the annual meeting. In this report, the IMF predicts that the United States’ GDP growth rate in 2011 will be 1.5%. The annual GDP growth rate will bPrecious metals market adjustmente 1.8%. In the June report, the IMF predicted that the US GDP growth rate in 2011 was 2.5%, and the growth rate in 2012 was 2.7%.
Kashkari expects that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will reveal a strong signal about QE3 at the Jackson Hole Central Bank meeting this Friday, although it is not clear whether QE3 will be launched at this meeting.
However, this only means that the central bank has just started to keep up with private investors. Many years ago, private investors have begun to pick up in gold investment. According to data from GFMS and the World Gold Council, at the end of 2009, private investors' gold holdings gradually exceeded official holdings. In 2010, they accounted for about 18.7% of total gold holdings, while official holdings accounted for 17.4%. These include the central bank and the International Monetary Fund.
With the boom in gold and silver this year, market investment enthusiasm continues to heat up, and the account precious metal products provided by banks for individual customers have received more and more attention. In order to attract more customers, banks have frequently developed new investment methods. Many banks have launched products that combine two trading methods: virtual trading to make price differences and redemption of physical objects.
Although the unemployment rate data released by the US Department of Labor last Friday fell short of expectations, the strong June non-agricultural employment numbers are enough to make people wonder whether the Fed might start slowing down its asset purchases as early as September this year. The US Department of Labor announced on Friday that the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 195,000 in June, far exceeding the expected 165,000. In addition, the data for April and May have also been revised upwards. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.6%, slightly higher than market expectations of 7.5%. From the data point of view, although the unemployment rate is far from the Fed’s target of 6.5%, the steady increase in the number of non-agricultural employment is enough to support the recovery of the US labor market, and it is gradually accelerating. In addition, the Fed has made it clear that it will not consider raising short-term interest rates until the unemployment rate drops to 6.5%. At present, the United States hopes to quickly increase people's confidence in the dollar and enhance the function of the dollar as a safe-haven asset. But Europe seems to be a little disobedient recently, and the small flame that has just emerged has been extinguished by a basin of cold water. Portugal's week-long political crisis ended on Saturday. The country’s Prime Minister Coelho announced the reorganization of the cabinet, and the country’s two main political parties have reached a firm and broad consensus on overcoming the crisis. Coelho also said in his speech on Saturday that the Portuguese economy has begun to improve and the government will continue to work to accelerate economic recovery and growth in the future. Therefore, the best way to enhance the strength of the dollar is to throw out expectations of reducing quantitative easing. Since the beginning of June, driven by this expectation, the US dollar index has gained more than 6%. Under the double pressure of economic recovery and Fed policy, gold has become the most injured member. On the day the May non-agricultural data was released, gold fell more than 2% to close below $1,400. On the day when the non-agricultural data was released in June, it fell 2.12%, instantly losing blockbuster bulls’ hard-to-take positions last week. And this week, will usher in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and a press conference after the meeting. The tone of the big brothers will directly determine the future of gold. But in terms of recent economic data, slowing down the pace of asset purchases does not seem to be easy to reverse. Even if there are occasional repetitions, it is unlikely to change the Fed's determination to control inflation and boost the dollar. The main strategy next week: sell on rallies. Lower support: 1210/1180/1165; upper resistance: 1240/1265/1302.
For most ordinary investors, the best investment product should be that physical gold is better than paper gold, and paper gold is better than gold jewelry. Physical gold business refers to the buying and selling of pPrecious metals market adjustmenthysical gold, which has strong characteristics of investment preservation. Due to the high transaction costs of physical gold bars and the inconvenient transaction procedures, it is more suitable for long-term investment. Physical gold can be bought and held for a long period of time, or it can be invested at a fixed rate. The long-term investment strategy of physical gold is suitable for most ordinary investors, and does not require much professional knowledge and excessive investment of time and energy. Physical gold currently has real-time quotation gold bars. The investment advantage of this type of gold bullion is that the price information is transparent and consumers have large choices; the second is that the product is easy to purchase, and the goods can be picked up in time, and it can also be ordered in advance. Excessive added value.
At present, the situation of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the United States is still severe, and the domestic economic recovery is facing numerous challenges. In addition to the Fed's continuous quantitative easing policy to inject liquidity into the market to boost market confidence and support the economy, whether the US federal government will continue to introduce large-scale fiscal stimulus policies is also worthy of attention. According to foreign media reports, the next round of the US fiscal stimulus plan may not exceed $1 trillion, and the plan may be implemented at least until next month. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said that a new round of epidemic relief plans will be launched, but the design of the plan will depend on the performance of the labor market in June.
The first indicator is VIX, also called volatility indicator, which is recognized as the most authoritative indicator for measuring market risk sentiment. VIX mainly measures the volatility of US S&P stocks. Whenever the financial market and economy experience turbulence, this indicator will increase accordingly. At this time, it indicates that market risk sentiment is rising, and vice versa.