When the financial market is turbulent and even the economy enters a crisis, risk aversion in the market heats up, and the currency attribute of gold's hedging function becomes prominent. However, during the crisis, especially at the stage of rapid deterioration of the situation, due to the high uncertainty of the market and monetary policy, gold as a risk asset will be sold first, and the actual gold price will show a short-term downward trend. The subprime mortgage crisis that began in 2008 and the European debt crisis that followed and continue to this day have caused the actual gold price to experience two short cycles of sharp decliMorgan Precious Metalsnes.
The New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) gold futures closed slightly lower on Thursday (May 26). The rising debt worries in the euro zone suppressed the euro's sharp decline, and the price of gold was significantly dragged down. However, under the environment of high market risk aversion, safe-haven buying continued to emerge to limit the decline in gold prices. Comex-August gold futures closed down 3.9 US dollars, or 0.26%, to 1,522.8 US dollars / ounce, once fell to a two-day low of 1,514.6 US dollars / ounce. Gold prices hit a record high of $1,577.4 per ounce on May 2. Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said on Thursday that according to IMF regulations, the IMF will only issue new aid funds after other countries provide Greece with refinancing guarantees in the next 12 months. This will mean that the next round of financial aid for the Greek reform process may be stranded. As soon as the news came out, the euro/dollar immediately plummeted by more than 100 points and dragged down the price of gold. But analysts believe that despite the sharp correction of gold at the beginning of this month, the upward trend of gold remains intact. BNP Paribas (BNPParibas) analyst Anne-LaureTremblay said that in the past few days, market sentiment surrounding gold has become more and more positive, as evidenced by the reflow of funds into listed exchange funds (ETFs). She believes that gold prices will continue to rise from current levels in 2011. Tremblay mentioned that so far this year, the dollar-denominated gold price has risen by more than 7%, driven by investor concerns caused by the euro zone debt crisis, the turmoil in the Middle East and the fragile recovery of the US economy. Technically, the daily K-line resistance of C0MEX August gold futures is located at US$1,533.60/ounce (May 25th high) and US$1,544.70/ounce (May 4th high). Support is at US$1,514.20/ounce (May 24). Daily low) and 1,505.40 US dollars / ounce (30-day moving average). Weekly K-line resistance is located at $1,569.80/ounce (the high point of the week on April 29) and $1,577.40/ounce (the high point of the week on May 6), while the support levels are at $1,500.00/ounce (integer mark) and $1,492.30 /Oz (10-week moving average).
From a technical point of view, the gold K-line pattern is still strong. At the beginning of last week, the big Yang line rose to break the upper boundary of the shock range. On Thursday, it successfully stepped on the support downward, and once again exerted its force, setting a new historical high, reaching a record high of 1632. In addition, from the perspective of technical indicators, the monthly, weekly, and daily gold lines all show a relatively obvious top divergence, which has accumulated a considerable degree of overbought pressure. It can be foreseen that once the fundamentals show more negative news about gold, the price of gold will appear. Significant adjustments will be inevitable.
Second, the price of gold no longer moves in the opposite direction of the US dollar, which highlights the currency nature of gold itself. In the past long-term cycle, gold has always appeared as the counterparty of the US dollar, and the rise of the US dollar often means the fall of the price of gold. However, nowadays, the relatively simple negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar no longer exists. Gold has begun to be independent of the U.S. dollar and also independent of the euro, and is gradually becoming a tripartite with the two major reserve currencies.
In the ugly game between the euro and the US dollar, the increase in US dollar holdings can only be understood as a passive choice. According to a market analyst, countries have not yet reached an agreement on some details of the second round of Greek aid, especially the participation of private investors. The industry is not optimistic about the effects of the EU special summit.
From January to February 2009, the foreign exchange reserves of Belarusian gMorgan Precious Metalsold (international reserve assets calculated by national standards) increased by 4.2% to US$3.814 billion; including 20 billion yuan, the foreign exchange reserves of white gold reached US$6.8 billion, an increase of 1.8 times.
On the morning of July 5, sponsored by the Gold Association, Gold News, and co-organized by partners such as Chengdu Commercial Daily, Daily Economic News and other partners, the Gold Investor Risk Prevention Guide and Gold Investor Education Miles (hereinafter referred to as Gold Investment Miles) ) The event officially kicked off. At the scene, gold investment experts warned nearly 200 listeners that the main purpose of investment is not to make a profit, but to start a battle to defend wealth. The most effective way to prevent monetary wealth from shrinking is to invest in gold entities, but the risks of gold investment must be guarded against.
FastMarkets precious metals analyst James Moore said, I think, in fact, US employment is still increasing. In all respects, the increase of 80,000 non-agricultural employment in the United States is not too bad. I think, compared with Europe, the data postponed the time point of the Fed's quantitative easing.
Barclays Capital (BarclaysCapital) analysts said on Tuesday that they are optimistic about the future investment demand for gold. The bank said that in the first quarter, investment demand in addition to listed trading products (ETP) offset the downturn in the listed trading products themselves. The demand for gold bars and gold coins was particularly strong because investors in the country were worried about inflation and limited investment channels.