According to the monthly survey results released by the German think tank ZEW on Tuesday, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell from positive 3.1 in May to negative 9.0 iDundee Precious Metalsn June, the lowest level since January 2009, and the first time it turned negative since October last year; The market is forecast to drop to minus 2.0.
Since the end of last year, investors’ enthusiasm for silver has been unprecedentedly high. According to companies engaged in silver T+D transactions, the number of people entering the market has doubled. In terms of trading volume, the average trading volume on the 20th went from only more than 20,000 lots in April 2008 to more than 100,000 lots in October 2009, and doubled to more than 200,000 lots in May 2010. The month has reached an astonishing 600,000 hands or more. When the silver price hit a new high, the daily transaction amount of domestic silver had reached 20 billion yuan, and at the lowest point was only 200 million yuan.
Under the pressure of the decline of risk aversion and the settlement of profits, gold has fallen from a historical high, and the market has speculated whether gold has peaked? How will the market outlook be interpreted? We believe that gold has not yet peaked and will absorb the large amount of profit-making chips accumulated before in the form of high shocks in the short term. After its adjustment is completed, it is still expected to resume its upward trend, because the momentum that supports its rise still exists.
In the most recent investor report of PIMCO in June, PIMCO managing director Bill Gross (Bill Gross) clearly pointed out that investors should focus on the short-end investment in Treasury bonds, Sovereign funds and central banks of various countries have previously diversified their investments. Gross has always been regarded by the industry as a master investment figure in the field of fixed income products.
German media reported on June 6 that the Economic and Financial Committee composed of deputy finance ministers and senior officials of the 17 euro zone countries passed the second round of aid to Greece in principle, the scale of which will exceed 100 billion euros. This aid plan approved in principle seems to be helping Greece avoid debt restructuring. However, countries in the euro zone have differences on the specific implementation details of the plan, especially the financing method; in addition, the stringent conditions attached to the new aid plan further increase the uncertainty of the plan, so that the German finance minister said that Greece It is still facing substantial bankruptcy risks.
However, in the first few trading days into May, the US dollar index fell to around 73 and stopped falling within a narrow range. Affected by this, international gold prices feDundee Precious Metalsll nearly 3%. The main domestic Shanghai gold contract au1112 followed the trend of international gold prices in April, with a cumulative increase of 5%. It has fallen by 1.5% so far in May. Currently, the Shanghai gold au1112 contract remains adjusted above the previous high of 311.70.
This is mainly due to the excessive increase in gold prices in the past two years. Zhang Bingnan said that in 2010 and 2011, the annual increase in international gold prices exceeded 20%. Compared with other investment products, gold has been very lucky. This is because unlike investment products such as stocks, bonds, funds, and insurance, gold is the only asset with intrinsic value. Other financial assets are loan assets and credit assets, and all credit assets have investment risks. The value of gold itself can maintain and increase in value, so the purpose of investing in gold is not how much money you want to make, but the allocation and balance of assets. All countries now reserve gold to balance their asset reserves and to deal with the risks of economic cyclical fluctuations and currency turbulence.